One thing is certain, we will not sales pitch you on this website. I might have mis understood your timeline, let’s work through it together.
You will start at age 44, but let’s say 45 just to be fair. 45, plus two years of going through ATP and instructing makes you 47. Average time at the regionals is 5-10 years, so let’s go with ten to be on the safe side, that makes you 57. I am going to be honest, that is old for a major airline. Now if you go to one of the regionals that has a guaranteed flow through, the major will have to take you (other factors aside) and cannot discriminate based on age. But if you are simply applying to an airline through the normal application process, I think it will be a tough sell. Now if you get hired after only five years at a regional, then that is a different story. We can’t guarantee how long it will take or if you will ever make it to the majors.
The problem is that you are trying to turn this into a mathematical equation, but you don’t know all of the variables and can’t possibly know them all in advance. I get where you are coming from, but there is just no way to guarantee anything.
As far as airlines with flow throughs, those are great, as long as the major wants the agreement and as long as they are hiring. I have personally seen a flow through agreement cancelled and thousands of pilots affected by it. I am not saying that flow through agreements do not work, just saying I would not count on one.